A Geopolitical Turbulence In The Heyday Of COVID-19

India has had an interminable tradition of non-alignment and uni-alignment. The nascent India of Pandit Nehru and the arbitrary India of his daughter Indira Gandhi had an acute disposition towards the Soviet Union. When the U.S.-sponsored Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) or the Baghdad Pact inserted Pakistan as its strategic partner in 1954, it was obvious for New Delhi to cultivate amicable strategic and military relations with the Soviet Union's Moscow. The world order of the mid and late 20th century necessitated a soviet-inclination for the newly sculpted, traumatized, jeopardized, and enfeebled state of India. In 1961, India became a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement to circumvent economic, militaristic, or espionage-related collusion in the Cold War power-play between the United States and the Soviet Union. But, in the 1990s, when India's economy burgeoned due to the liberalization and globalization of the Indian market under PM P.V. Narasimha Rao, the Indian foreign policy acclimatized to the unipolar world and developed closer ties with the United States gradually debilitating the Indo-Russian bilateralism. Under the administrations of Presidents George Walker Bush and Barack Obama, the Indo-U.S. ties were honed and aggrandized. The India-United States Civil Nuclear Agreement was an upshot of that buttressed bilateral tie. Geostrategists perceive this deal as a watershed in U.S.-India relations and deem it as a pivotal step towards the international nonproliferation efforts. A mushrooming in bilateral trade and investment, co-operation on international security matters, inclusion of India in decision-making on matters of global governance (such as in the list of non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and in the invitee list of the G7 summit) shoved Russia (the crumbled Soviet Union) to the brink of India's foreign policy and its objectives.

A zestful reorientation commenced after May 26, 2014, when Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister of India. The idiosyncratic Modi doctrine came as a geopolitical veer from non-alignment and uni-alignment to multi-alignment (a term presumably coined by Dr. Shashi Tharoor in one of his speeches on India's foreign policy). Relations were cordial with U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump along with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The strategic partnership was built on the grounds of trade, investment, technology, armaments, and bilateralism.

The lethal second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 has skyrocketed India's COVID tally and has left its already-lamentable medical infrastructure in a more harrowing situation. At this intractable rapidity, India could surpass the U.S. in the upcoming months in terms of overall cases. What remains a conundrum for virologists and biologists is the meteoric tempo of the virus's transmission. Researchers in India are now doing their utmost to pinpoint what is behind the unprecedented and overwhelming surge, which could reputedly be due to an unfortunate confluence of factors, including the emergence of particularly infectious variants, a rise in unrestricted social interactions, and low vaccine coverage due to the enormous population of the state. Genomic surveillance data shows that a novel variant first identified in India late last year, known to scientists as B.1.617, contains two mutations that have been linked to increased transmissibility and have a potentiality to evade immune protection. It has now been detected in 20 other countries. Also, the nationwide campaign, which kicked off in January, might even have contributed to an uptick in cases, if it caused people to ease public-health measures.

Despite this ghastly state of affairs, the gameplay of geopolitics is in a full-fledged mode. After national and international duress, and Indian public outrage, the global power- the U.S.- succumbed to India and vowed to lift the embargo on raw materials (imposed by the invocation of the U.S. Defence Production Act on the onset of Biden administration) used to prepare the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, codenamed AZD1222, widely known as Covishield, and aid India with life-saving medical supplies and equipment including oxygen cylinders, oxygen concentrators, oxygen generator units, rapid diagnostic test kits, ventilators, Personal Protective Equipment [PPE], N95 masks, doses of the highly-demanded drugs Remdesivir, et cetera.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony John Blinken had reacted publicly to the COVID-19 wave ravaging India, saying the U.S. would rapidly deploy additional support.

'Our hearts go out to the Indian people in the midst of the horrific COVID-19 outbreak. We are working closely with our partners in the Indian government, and we will rapidly deploy additional support to the people of India and India's healthcare heroes,' Mr. Blinken had tweeted.

Also, President Biden recounted India's contribution to the US' fight against the fatal pandemic in a tweet from his official President account.

Meanwhile, the Chinese state-affiliated media, the Global Times, a puppet of the Communist Party of China (CCP), adept at propagating lies, animosity, and Chinese jingoism, published an article titled 'India's epidemic mirrors hypocrisy of US, West'. An excerpt from the article emphasizes, 'Countries like India should be aware that they are pawns to the US. They might be picked up when the US needs them, but then discarded like used tissue when they are not useful any more. The US has been attempting to bind India to its anti-China chariot. But when it is about support with practical moves, the US has stepped back with its commitment to take care of Americans ''first and foremost." Hypocrisy of the US and the West has been exposed in this regard, together with their selfishness. However, the US has attached special importance to India's strategic value as a leverage to suppress China. If India was weakened by the still wildly spreading COVID-19, it would obviously be less effective to the US' anti-China campaign. The US won't want to see this happen. So it is possible that Washington will reach out to New Delhi with some symbolic supports, including donations. In addition, the US-led Quad maybe has also disappointed India. At the "historic" Quad summit, the leaders of the US, Australia and Japan vowed to ramp up production of vaccines in India. This was done to counter China's vaccine distribution assistance to other countries and regions.'

PM Modi tweeted on the 28th of April, 'Had an excellent conversation with my friend President Putin today. We discussed the evolving COVID-19 situation, and I thanked President Putin for Russia's help and support in India's fight against the pandemic; We also reviewed our diverse bilateral cooperation, especially in the area of space exploration and renewable energy sector, including in hydrogen economy. Our cooperation on Sputnik-V vaccine will assist humanity in battling the pandemic; To add further momentum to our strong strategic partnership, President Putin and I have agreed to establish a 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between our Foreign and Defence Ministers.'

Russia will furnish an overall 20 tons of equipment to India which includes oxygen concentrators, lung ventilation equipment, bedside monitors, medicines, including Coronavir, and other essential pharmaceuticals. The first batch of Russian-made Sputnik V has arrived on the 1st of May and is expected to mitigate the crisis spurred by the second wave of COVID-19. The official Twitter handle of Sputnik V tweeted, 'First batch of #SputnikV vaccine arrives in Hyderabad, India! That's the same day the country starts mass COVID vaccination drive covering its entire adult population. Let's jointly defeat this pandemic. Together we are stronger.'

India has shunned Russia's proposal for 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue for a long time. India's Foreign and Defence Ministers had this Dialogue only with their Quad counterparts until now, but, the pandemic has somewhat propelled India to multi-alignment, and hence India eventually accepted Russia's proposal. Russia will be the first member outside Quad to hold an annual bilateral 2+2 Dialogue with India. It could be a strategic maoeuvre to attenuate the American domination on Indian foreign policy. The Presidency of Joe Biden would be unrelenting on his so-called nemesis- Russia. A recent incident of 10 Russian diplomats being booted out of the U.S. on allegations of meddling in the 2020 United States Presidential election, bolster this supposition.

Standing in solidarity with India, France will supply India with substantial medical aid to help it tackle the second wave. The shipments to India will include oxygen generators, respirators, ventilators, containers of Liquid Medical Oxygen (LMO), and cryogenic containers.

Explicitly, the Indo-French partnership will revamp a new dimension to India's multi-alignment. We must not omit that the Indian Air Force (IAF) has been rejuvenated by French Dassault Rafale to handle the Chinese menace at the Northern and North-Eastern frontiers. France could be the most prominent and a well-wishing ally of India in this multipolar world. Also, the now-strained and deteriorated France-Pakistan relations could avail India and France may find India as the most reliable bilateral partner in Asia in the post-COVID world. And France is a permanent member (P5) of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which means it can stave off the exploitation of China's veto power against India and its geostrategic interests for the long run. India should stiffen its ties with France and revitalize with Russia, retain its affable and well-established relations with the U.S, and should endeavor to maintain a trade-friendly relation with China. Global Times reported on 30th of April, 'Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday sends a message of condolences to Indian PM Narendra Modi over India's worsening COVID-19 crisis. Xi said China is willing to enhance cooperation with India in the fight against COVID-19 and provide help to the country, he is concerned about India's COVID-19 situation; and he sends condolences to the Indian government and people, in the name of the Chinese government, people and himself; Xi said China is willing to strengthen cooperation with India in fighting the pandemic and provide the country with help and support; The Chinese president said he believes under the leadership of the Indian government, India will conquer the viral spread; Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Friday that Chinese society, including red cross, regional governments, private organizations and companies, has been mobilized to send anti-pandemic materials to India; According to incomplete statistics, China has exported more than 26,000 ventilators and oxygenerators, 15,000 patient monitors and approximately 3,800 tons of medicine of India since April; Chinese medical companies are gearing up their production, and more of these materials will be sent to India in the upcoming days; Wang mentioned that cargo flight routes from China to India are operating smoothly, and there are multiple Chinese flights ferried from China to India. Chinese authorities are facilitating customs clearances and transportations for conveying anti-COVID19 materials from Chinese cities to India.'

China has its own self-interests such as major investment plans in India and cajoling India to be inducted in the South Asia COVID-19 Emergency Plan (joint cooperation against COVID-19 whose members are Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), which so far India has refrained to. Xi's warm letter demands another multi-alignment for India's foreign policy.

The gist of this write-up is: The world is expeditiously shifting towards multi-alignment and multilateralism, and so should India. Lagging behind in terms of geopolitical shrewdness isn't a positive indicator for an astute state with an equally astute leadership. An equilibrium in proclivity towards the great powers would certainly pave India's way to the United States Security Council (UNSC) in the forthcoming Asian decades!